Revenue Estimating Conference to Meet in October

The Revenue Estimating Conference (REC) will meet in October to revise the estimate for FY 2011 and establish the initial estimate for FY 2012.

The REC consists of Richard Oshlo (Governor’s appointee), Holly Lyons (Legislature’s appointee) and David Underwood (private sector representative, appointed by the other two members).

Among the key things to come out of the meeting is final word on FY 2010, which ended on June 30. At this point it appears that revenue will exceed the REC estimate for FY 2010 by $250 million. That money will go to replenish the Cash Reserve Fund (CRF). The Democrats appropriated $268 million from the CRF for ongoing expenditures in FY 2011.

Since FY 2010 came in above the estimate, it will impact the FY 2011 estimate. The current estimate for FY 2011 is 0.1 percent growth, or a net increase of $58 million. Even if the REC chooses to keep the estimate at 0.1 percent, it will represent an increase of slightly over $300 million for FY 2011. That will increase the ending balance to $433 million. That revenue will be needed to replenish the reserve funds.

For FY 2012, Legislative Services Agency estimates approximately $1 billion of built-in spending is already on the books. If the FY 2012 estimate is an increase of $250 million, that would make the spending gap approximately $750 million, before the built-in spending number is revised by LSA.

House Republicans are committed to a line-by-line review of the budget and will continue to suggest budget savings ideas in order to balance the budget without raising taxes.